diff --git a/.github/workflows/release.yml b/.github/workflows/release.yml
index 931694db1b..7915921ba8 100644
--- a/.github/workflows/release.yml
+++ b/.github/workflows/release.yml
@@ -623,9 +623,16 @@ jobs:
 
   # Post-publish verification: run the release smoke suite against the exact
   # beta version that was just published.
+  #
+  # The condition must carry an explicit status-check function: without one,
+  # GitHub attaches an implicit success(), which evaluates the needs chain
+  # transitively — and publish_beta's chain contains verify_beta_candidate,
+  # which is skipped on every promote-mode beta. The implicit form silently
+  # skipped this job on the first promote-mode beta after the candidate
+  # lane landed.
   smoke_beta:
     needs: publish_beta
-    if: ${{ !inputs.dry_run }}
+    if: ${{ !cancelled() && needs.publish_beta.result == 'success' && !inputs.dry_run }}
     uses: ./.github/workflows/release-smoke.yml
     with:
       paperclip_version: ${{ needs.publish_beta.outputs.beta_version }}
diff --git a/scripts/__tests__/release-verify-workflow.test.mjs b/scripts/__tests__/release-verify-workflow.test.mjs
index 354bd81c4c..d32f08ebcc 100644
--- a/scripts/__tests__/release-verify-workflow.test.mjs
+++ b/scripts/__tests__/release-verify-workflow.test.mjs
@@ -60,6 +60,19 @@ test("candidate-branch betas are validated and fully verified before publish", (
   assert.match(releaseWorkflow, /needs\.verify_beta_candidate\.result == 'success'/);
 });
 
+test("post-publish beta smoke survives the skipped candidate-verification ancestor", () => {
+  const releaseWorkflow = readWorkflow("release.yml");
+
+  // publish_beta's needs chain contains verify_beta_candidate, which is
+  // skipped on promote-mode betas. An `if:` without a status-check function
+  // gets an implicit success() that evaluates that chain transitively and
+  // silently skips the smoke. The condition must stay explicit.
+  assert.match(
+    releaseWorkflow,
+    /smoke_beta:\n\s+needs: publish_beta\n\s+if: \$\{\{ !cancelled\(\) && needs\.publish_beta\.result == 'success' && !inputs\.dry_run \}\}/,
+  );
+});
+
 test("every lane's tag push degrades to recovery instructions when rejected", () => {
   const releaseWorkflow = readWorkflow("release.yml");