fix(stats): make experiment-funnel comparable across variants

Replace A2P% (Paid / activated, which could exceed 100% because a paid
user need not have activated) with Conv% (Paid / matured-assigned, always
<=100% and comparable across variants). Print the matured cohort size
(MatU) so the rate denominators are visible and the table reconciles.
Revive ARPU (revenue per matured user) as the normalized revenue metric.

Reframe the guidance: compare variants on the per-matured-user Conv%/ARPU,
not on the absolute MRR/Cost/Burn/CM totals, which scale with MatU and so
mechanically favour whichever variant matured more (pay_now matures ~3x
faster than control).

app/Console/Commands/SendExperimentFunnelReportCommand.php

@@ -66,24 +66,30 @@ class SendExperimentFunnelReportCommand extends Command
     {
         $revenue = $report['revenueAvailable'];
         $currency = $report['currency'];
-        $lines = [sprintf('%-8s %5s %5s %5s %5s %6s %8s %8s %8s %8s', 'Variant', 'Assg', 'Actd', 'Card', 'Paid', 'A2P%', 'MRR', 'Cost', 'Burn', 'CM')];
+        $lines = [sprintf(
+            '%-8s %5s %5s %5s %5s %5s %6s %7s %7s %7s %7s %7s',
+            'Variant', 'Assg', 'Actd', 'Card', 'MatU', 'Paid', 'Conv%', 'ARPU', 'MRR', 'Cost', 'Burn', 'CM',
+        )];
 
         foreach (self::LABELS as $key => $label) {
             $row = $report['variants'][$key];
-            $mature = $row['activatedMature'] > 0;
+            $mature = $row['assignedMature'] > 0;
+            $money = $revenue && $mature;
 
             $lines[] = sprintf(
-                '%-8s %5d %5d %5d %5d %6s %8s %8s %8s %8s',
+                '%-8s %5d %5d %5d %5d %5d %6s %7s %7s %7s %7s %7s',
                 $label,
                 $row['assigned'],
                 $row['activated'],
                 $row['subscribed'],
+                $row['assignedMature'],
                 $row['activeMature'],
-                $mature ? ((int) round($row['activationToPaidRate'] * 100)).'%' : 'pend',
-                $revenue ? $this->money($row['mrrCents'], $currency) : '—',
+                $mature ? ((int) round($row['netActiveRate'] * 100)).'%' : 'pend',
+                $money && $row['arpuCents'] !== null ? $this->money($row['arpuCents'], $currency) : '—',
+                $money ? $this->money($row['mrrCents'], $currency) : '—',
                 $mature ? $this->money($row['costCents'], $currency) : '—',
                 $mature ? $this->money($row['wastedCostCents'], $currency) : '—',
-                $revenue && $mature ? $this->money($row['contributionMarginCents'], $currency) : '—',
+                $money ? $this->money($row['contributionMarginCents'], $currency) : '—',
             );
         }
 
@@ -121,14 +127,14 @@ class SendExperimentFunnelReportCommand extends Command
                 [
                     'name' => 'Legend',
                     'value' => sprintf(
-                        'Assg = signups · Actd = activated (connected a bank or enabled AI = cost triggered) · Card = completed checkout (card on file) · Paid = live non-refunded subs (mature) · A2P%% = Paid ÷ activated (mature) · MRR = monthly run-rate of paid subs (yearly ÷ 12) · Cost = est. connection cost of the mature cohort (%s/connection) · Burn = connection cost of mature users who never converted (money lost) · CM = MRR − Cost · `pend`/`—` = no mature data yet.',
+                        'Assg = signups · Actd = activated (connected a bank or enabled AI = cost triggered) · Card = completed checkout (card on file) · MatU = matured assigned (cohort old enough to score for this variant) · Paid = live non-refunded subs among MatU · Conv%% = Paid ÷ MatU (net conversion, always ≤100%%, comparable across variants) · ARPU = MRR ÷ MatU (revenue per matured user) · MRR = monthly run-rate of paid subs (yearly ÷ 12) · Cost = est. connection cost of MatU (%s/connection) · Burn = connection cost of matured users not currently paying · CM = MRR − Cost · `pend`/`—` = no matured data yet.',
                         $this->money($report['costPerConnectionCents'], $report['currency']),
                     ),
                     'inline' => false,
                 ],
                 [
                     'name' => '⚠️ How to read it',
-                    'value' => 'Each variant is gated by its own decision window (control 15d, reduced 7d, pay_now 3d), so pay_now matures first — compare only once all three have mature volume, and check significance before calling a winner. **CM (contribution margin) is the decision metric.** Assg/Actd/Card are lifetime counts; A2P%/Cost/Burn/CM cover only the mature cohort, so the raw Actd→Card→Paid funnel mixes cohorts (immature carded users can\'t be Paid yet) — read it for volume, compare variants on A2P%/CM. Burn is what the connect-and-leave leak costs. Cost is a flat per-connection estimate across all providers, not per-provider billing.',
+                    'value' => 'Each variant matures on its own decision window (control 15d, reduced 7d, pay_now 3d, +3d settle), so at any moment MatU differs a lot between variants (pay_now matures first). **Compare variants on Conv% and ARPU — normalized per matured user — not on the absolute MRR/Cost/Burn/CM totals, which scale with MatU and so mechanically favour whichever variant has matured more.** Assg/Actd/Card are lifetime counts; everything from MatU rightward covers the matured cohort only, so the raw Actd→Card→Paid funnel mixes cohorts (immature carded users can\'t be Paid yet) — read it for volume. Per-user CM is sub-cent at current volume, so treat CM as directional context, not the decision. Check significance (sample size = MatU) before calling a winner. Cost is a flat per-connection estimate across all providers, not per-provider billing.',
                     'inline' => false,
                 ],
             ],

tests/Feature/SendExperimentFunnelReportCommandTest.php

@@ -173,6 +173,29 @@ it('computes connection cost, wasted burn and contribution margin', function ()
         ->and($control['activationToPaidRate'])->toBe(0.5);     // 1 paid ÷ 2 activated
 });
 
+it('reports a matured-cohort conversion capped at 100% and prints the matured denominator', function () {
+    $signup = CarbonImmutable::parse('2026-06-05'); // control matures by the test clock
+
+    // Two paid, matured control users; only one is "activated" (connected a bank).
+    // The old A2P% (Paid ÷ activated = 2 ÷ 1) would print a nonsensical 200%.
+    experimentUser(SubscriptionExperiment::CONTROL, $signup, ['status' => 'active', 'at' => $signup->addDay()], connections: 1);
+    experimentUser(SubscriptionExperiment::CONTROL, $signup, ['status' => 'active', 'at' => $signup->addDay()]);
+
+    $control = app(ExperimentFunnelCollector::class)->collect()['variants'][SubscriptionExperiment::CONTROL];
+
+    expect($control['assignedMature'])->toBe(2)
+        ->and($control['activatedMature'])->toBe(1)
+        ->and($control['activeMature'])->toBe(2)
+        ->and($control['netActiveRate'])->toBe(1.0); // Conv% = Paid ÷ MatU, always ≤ 100%
+
+    artisan('stats:experiment-funnel', ['--no-discord' => true])
+        ->expectsOutputToContain('Conv%')
+        ->expectsOutputToContain('MatU')
+        ->expectsOutputToContain('ARPU')
+        ->expectsOutputToContain('100%')
+        ->assertSuccessful();
+});
+
 it('scales connection cost by the cost-per-connection argument', function () {
     $signup = CarbonImmutable::parse('2026-06-05');