## What
An A/B price experiment to find the price that **maximizes contribution
margin per new user**, not just conversion. **Inert until
`PRICE_EXPERIMENT_STARTED_AT` is set** — merging changes nothing in
production.
| Arm | Monthly | Annual (= monthly × 6) |
|-----|---------|------------------------|
| A · control | €3.99 | €23.88 *(unchanged)* |
| B · high | €8.99 | €53.94 |
New signups only; earlier users stay `legacy`/control. Two arms rather
than the originally designed A/B/C: at current signup volume three arms
leave the CM metric underpowered, and the wide €3.99↔€8.99 gap maximizes
the detectable signal.
## Rebuilt on top of #762
This branch was written against the #600 trial experiment. #762 then
ended that experiment and deleted `ExperimentOffer`,
`SubscriptionExperiment`, `ExperimentFunnelCollector`,
`ProportionSignificance` and `BinomialProportion` — the exact foundation
this extended.
Rather than resurrect them, the branch was reset onto `main` and
rewritten: **1478 → 401 insertions, 19 → 8 files.** The previous version
is preserved at the tag
[`price-experiment-full`](https://github.com/whisper-money/whisper-money/tree/price-experiment-full).
## How it works
- **`App\Services\Subscriptions\PriceExperiment`** — `variantFor` /
`plansFor` / `lookupKeyFor`, gated by `PRICE_EXPERIMENT_STARTED_AT`,
winner pinned via `PRICE_EXPERIMENT_FORCE_VARIANT` (env-only, no
deploy).
- Assignment is a **salted hash**, `crc32('price:'.$id) % 2` —
deliberately *not* a stored Pennant feature. Nothing needs persisting,
reading back, or purging when the experiment ends (#762 needed a
migration to delete 1,890 stored assignments). It also costs no query on
the render path, and a report can reproduce the split in SQL with
`CRC32(CONCAT('price:', id))`. The salt keeps the split independent from
any other crc32-based one on the same ids.
- Checkout resolves the lookup key **server-side only**, so a client
can't self-select the cheaper price. `HandleInertiaRequests` makes the
shared `pricing.plans` prop variant-aware, so the paywall and the
upgrade dialogs show exactly what will be charged — no frontend change
needed.
- **`stripe:sync-prices`** now also creates the variant tiers.
## Measurement is deliberately not in this PR
The previous version shipped ~1100 lines of measurement:
`stats:price-experiment-funnel`, its collector, `WelchTTest`, `Normal`,
`SampleRatioMismatch`, `MonthlyEquivalentPrices`, a weekly schedule
entry and their tests. All of it is cut here.
Every input is reconstructible at any time — the bucket is
deterministic, and `created_at`, subscriptions and connections are all
stored — so no data is lost by not capturing it weekly. And the design
calls for deciding **only at a pre-registered horizon**, which made a
weekly Discord report whose largest field read *"⚠️ MONITORING ONLY — do
not call a winner from this"* mostly ceremony.
It gets rebuilt from the tag when there is data worth reading. Checking
mid-flight that the split is really 50/50 needs no code:
```sql
SELECT CRC32(CONCAT('price:', id)) % 2 AS arm, COUNT(*)
FROM users WHERE created_at >= '<started_at>' GROUP BY arm;
```
The analysis design itself still stands and is recorded for the horizon:
CM/user primary via Welch (the €8.99 arm carries far more revenue
variance, so pooled-variance is invalid), conversion as a Fisher-exact
guardrail against control, SRM chi-square on assigned and matured
counts, cost from *currently-active* connections, and a guard that every
arm price id resolves in the Stripe product map.
## Incidental
`SyncStripePricesCommand::handle` was already at cyclomatic complexity
11 on `main`; touching one line surfaced it in the `crap` check. The
per-plan body moved into `syncPlan()` — pure extraction, same output.
## Before launching (in order)
1. `php artisan stripe:sync-prices` — creates the €8.99 / €53.94 tiers
under the lookup keys `whisper_pro_monthly_high` and
`whisper_pro_yearly_high`. **Must run before step 2.**
2. Set `PRICE_EXPERIMENT_STARTED_AT` to the launch date.
3. Compute and pre-register the horizon N from the real signup rate — no
peeking before it.
The #600 trial experiment is over, so price is automatically the only
moving variable; there is nothing to pin.
## Tests
Pest coverage for the gate, the forced-variant pin, the salt, split
stability per user, the variant prices and lookup keys, the paywall
prop, server-side checkout resolution, and variant syncing in
`stripe:sync-prices`. Affected suites green locally; `pint` and `php
artisan crap` clean.
Ends the trial/pricing A/B/C experiment. Everyone gets the control offer
— a free trial — and the trial length becomes a per-plan setting.
## Trial length
| Plan | Before | Now | Env override |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yearly | 15 days | **15 days** | `STRIPE_PRO_YEARLY_TRIAL_DAYS` |
| Monthly | 15 days | **7 days** | `STRIPE_PRO_MONTHLY_TRIAL_DAYS` |
**Note that monthly 15 → 7 is a new bet, not a rollback.** The control
arm was 15 days on both plans, and 7 days on monthly is a value the
experiment never tested (`reduced_trial` was monthly 3 / yearly 7). The
rationale is that the longer commitment earns the longer trial; it ships
here at the same time as the instrument that could measure it is
removed, so it will not be measurable as an isolated effect.
## Final experiment numbers
Archived here because `stats:experiment-funnel` and its collector are
deleted by this PR and the purge migration's `down()` is a no-op.
| Variant | Assigned | Subscribed | Active | Refunded |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| control | 597 | 46 | 13 | 0 |
| reduced_trial | 590 | 50 | 10 | 0 |
| pay_now | 609 | 41 | 21 | 18 |
| legacy | 94 | 55 | 31 | 0 |
## What is deleted
- `App\Features\SubscriptionExperiment` (the Pennant A/B/C assignment)
and the `ExperimentOffer` service.
- The `pay_now` self-service refund: `RefundSelfServe`, the
`settings.billing.refund` route, the controller actions and Discord
embeds, the money-back card in billing settings, and the
`stripe:verify-refund` sandbox command.
- The weekly `stats:experiment-funnel` report, its collector, and the
`ProportionSignificance` / `BinomialProportion` helpers it was the only
caller of, plus its schedule entry.
- The `subscriptions.experiment.*` config block and the orphaned
`es`/`fr` translation strings.
- A data migration purges the ~1,890 stored Pennant assignments.
`subscriptions.refunded_at` is deliberately **kept**: nothing reads it
anymore, but it is the only record of the 18 refunds the experiment
issued. The migration carries a comment saying so.
## Fixes found in review
- **The surviving funnel report was mis-scoring conversions.**
`SubscriptionFunnelCollector` compared every cancellation to one global
trial length. With trials now diverging per plan, a monthly subscriber
who was billed and cancelled on day 10 was scored as never having paid.
It now reads each subscription's own `trial_ends_at`, and the longest
plan trial is used only for deciding when a cohort is old enough to
score. Covered by two new tests.
- **The trial length swapped silently.** It lived on a single line under
the plan selector, which rewrote itself when the user switched plan. Now
that the plans genuinely differ, each plan card shows its own length.
- The report legend no longer quotes a single trial length for both
plans, and warns that the experiment weeks are still inside its window.
## Before merging
- [x] **Unset `SUBSCRIPTION_EXPERIMENT_STARTED_AT` in production** so no
new `pay_now` assignment happens while this waits. Anyone who checks out
under `pay_now` between now and the deploy is charged upfront and then
loses the one-tap refund they were promised at the point of payment.
Checked just before opening this PR: **0 `pay_now` subscriptions
currently inside the 3-day window**, so nobody is stranded today.
- [x] Drop the now-orphaned `SUBSCRIPTION_EXPERIMENT_*` variables from
the production env with the deploy.
- [x] If old containers are still serving while the purge migration
runs, a few assignments can be re-resolved and reappear. Harmless —
re-run `php artisan pennant:purge "App\Features\SubscriptionExperiment"`
once the deploy settles if you want the table clean.
Support note: a manual Stripe refund for a former `pay_now` user will
not disconnect their bank connections, which the automated flow used to
do.
## Demo
https://github.com/user-attachments/assets/3614d488-05c6-405d-a687-bbf45746879a
<!-- PLACEHOLDER: drag the QA video here -->
## QA
Browser-tested against the running app:
- Paywall: annual card shows "15 days free", monthly card "7 days free";
the terms line under the selector follows the selected plan (15 ↔ 7);
mobile viewport renders fine.
- Billing settings: no money-back card for a free user or an active
subscriber; `POST /settings/billing/refund` returns 404.
- No console or network errors on any screen.
- `stats:subscription-funnel` still renders and posts.
- The purge migration leaves 0 `SubscriptionExperiment` rows.
Full suite green (2045 tests) apart from the known local-only
`DashboardTest` 409; `pint`, `lint`, `format` and `build` all clean.
## What
A 3-way experiment on how the paid plan is offered, plus per-variant
measurement. New signups (on/after `SUBSCRIPTION_EXPERIMENT_STARTED_AT`)
are split evenly into:
- **control** — current 15-day trial.
- **reduced_trial** — shorter trial: 3 days monthly, 7 days yearly.
- **pay_now** — charged immediately (no trial), with a self-service
money-back guarantee for the first 3 days.
Earlier users stay **legacy** and keep the 15-day trial. **While
`started_at` is null the experiment is off and everyone behaves like
control — inert until activated via env.**
## How it works
- **Assignment** — `App\Features\SubscriptionExperiment` (Pennant),
deterministic even split by a stable hash of the user id. QA can force a
variant with `feature:enable`.
- **Offer policy** — `ExperimentOffer` is the single source of truth for
trial days per plan, the pay-now flag, the refund window and refund
eligibility; shared by checkout, paywall and billing.
- **Checkout** — trial length comes from the variant (`trialDays(0)` for
pay_now → immediate charge).
- **Onboarding clarity** — the paywall states the exact terms above the
CTA: trial length for the selected plan, or "charged €X today + 3-day
money-back guarantee" for pay_now.
- **Self-service refund (pay_now)** — Settings → Billing, within the
window: refunds the upfront charge, `cancelNow`, revokes bank
connections keeping imported data. `refunded_at` records it and blocks a
second refund. Crash-safe ordering: the refund is stamped before
cancel/disconnect, which run best-effort in a try/catch.
## Measurement
`stats:experiment-funnel` (weekly → Discord): per-variant funnel
(assigned, subscribed, status breakdown, refunds) with a **net-active
rate** gated by each variant's decision window (control 15d / reduced 7d
/ pay_now 3d) so cohorts are read at equal age. Attribution reads the
variant Pennant actually served each user, so the report can't drift
from what users experienced. It also reports **MRR** (monthly run-rate
of mature net-active subs, yearly normalised ÷12) and **ARPU** (MRR ÷
assigned) per variant — ARPU is the revenue metric for the winner
decision. Plus a winner can be pinned org-wide with
`SUBSCRIPTION_EXPERIMENT_FORCE_VARIANT` (env, no deploy).
## Config (env)
- `SUBSCRIPTION_EXPERIMENT_STARTED_AT` — activates the experiment
(launch date). Null = off.
- `SUBSCRIPTION_EXPERIMENT_REDUCED_TRIAL_MONTHLY` (3), `..._YEARLY` (7),
`..._REFUND_WINDOW_DAYS` (3)
## Tests
- **Feature/unit:** assignment, offer policy, checkout wiring, refund
eligibility, the refund action incl. idempotency + crash-safe ordering
(Stripe mocked), and the funnel collector/command. ES + FR translations.
- **Browser** (`tests/Browser/SubscriptionRefundTest.php`): the
self-service refund UX end to end — card visibility + deadline, two-step
confirm, back-out, the refund control disappearing after confirming, and
gating (window passed / non-pay_now hidden). The `RefundSelfServe`
action is doubled so it never hits Stripe but applies the same DB
effect. Screenshots: `refund-card-visible`, `refund-confirm-step`,
`refund-completed`.
- Full non-browser suite green (the one failing `DashboardTest` is
pre-existing on `main` — Inertia 409 from the unbuilt local manifest).
Pint + ESLint + tsc (changed files) clean.
## Two independent reviews — acted on
**Fixed:** refund atomicity/idempotency (major) · funnel attribution now
reads Pennant's served value instead of recomputing, killing
report-vs-runtime drift (major) · pay_now copy shows the exact amount
charged · throttle + block-demo on the refund route · `resolve(?User)`
nullable · French translations.
**Reviewer notes (deferred, low value):**
- `refunded_at` is not cast to Carbon on Cashier's `Subscription` (safe
today — only null-compared; would need a custom Cashier model).
- `ExperimentFunnelCollector` walks users in PHP via `chunkById`; fine
at current volume, can move to grouped SQL if it grows.
## Confidence: 85 / 100
The critical money path is now **verified live against the Stripe
sandbox** (see below), which removes the earlier cap. All gates are
green and the acceptance criteria are met. Held at 85 (not higher)
because the browser UI test runs in CI rather than locally, and the
pay_now *hosted-checkout + webhook* leg reuses the standard Cashier
checkout already proven by the control flow (only `trialDays(0)`
differs) but wasn't re-driven through the hosted page. Given it moves
money + disconnects accounts, a human glance is still warranted before
enabling.
## Sandbox verification (live Stripe test mode)
`php artisan stripe:verify-refund` creates a real immediately-charged
subscription with a test card, runs the actual `RefundSelfServe`, and
checks the Stripe API. Result:
```
PASS subscription active after immediate charge (pay_now, no trial)
PASS canSelfRefund is true before refund
PASS latestPayment() resolves a payment intent
PASS refunded_at is stamped
PASS subscription is canceled
PASS canSelfRefund is false after refund
PASS Stripe charge shows a full refund (refunded=true)
```
The command is committed and guarded to Stripe test keys /
non-production, so it can be re-run before each launch toggle.
## Launch checklist
1. Stripe-sandbox smoke: `php artisan stripe:verify-refund` (done —
passing). Optionally also drive the hosted pay_now checkout once for
monthly + yearly to confirm the webhook leg.
2. Set `SUBSCRIPTION_EXPERIMENT_STARTED_AT` to the launch date (set
once; don't backdate).
3. Watch `stats:experiment-funnel`; a clean cohort baseline lands once
each variant's window matures.
Suggests transaction categorization rules during onboarding.
After a sync or import, it groups the uncategorized transactions, asks
Gemini (via laravel/ai) to map the common merchants to categories, and
shows the results for review. The user edits or drops any and creates
the ones they want. During onboarding the accepted rules also categorize
existing transactions right away.
Off by default: it needs the `AiRuleSuggestions` Pennant flag and a
per-user AI consent. The model and thresholds are config-driven.
`ai:suggest-rules {user}` prints what a user would get.
The settings-page surface and monthly regeneration are a follow-up.
## Summary
Every subscription now gets Stripe tax rates attached automatically via
Cashier.
## Changes
- `config/subscriptions.php`: new `tax_rates` array, env
`STRIPE_TAX_RATES` (comma-separated), default
`txr_1TPfzrLRCmKA3oWMNWmkQeq2`
- `app/Models/User.php`: `taxRates()` reads from config — Cashier picks
it up automatically on `newSubscription()` checkout + subscription
creation
- `tests/Feature/SubscriptionTest.php`: 2 tests
## Applies to
- New checkout sessions (`SubscriptionController::checkout`)
- New subscriptions created via Cashier
## Existing subscriptions
Not updated automatically. To sync:
```php
$user->subscription('default')->syncTaxRates();
```
## Notes
Using hard-coded tax rate IDs (not Stripe Tax auto-calc). Switch to
`Cashier::calculateTaxes()` later if desired.
## Summary
Adds a 15-day trial to the monthly and yearly plans. Configurable per
plan (or disabled) via config.
## Changes
- `config/subscriptions.php` — new `trial_days` key per plan (defaults:
monthly=15, yearly=15). Env overrides: `STRIPE_PRO_MONTHLY_TRIAL_DAYS`,
`STRIPE_PRO_YEARLY_TRIAL_DAYS`. Set to `0` to disable.
- `SubscriptionController::checkout` — applies `trialDays()` on the
Cashier subscription builder when `trial_days > 0`.
- Tests — assert `trial_days` surfaced in pricing props; assert
`trialDays(15)` applied on checkout; assert skipped when `0`.
## Notes
Stripe Checkout enforces a **minimum 2-day trial**. Values of `1` will
fail at Stripe. `0` disables cleanly.
## Test plan
```
php artisan test --compact tests/Feature/SubscriptionTest.php
```
## Summary
- update subscription pricing to the final release amounts for monthly
and annual billing
- keep billing UI formatting aligned with the configured currency so
1.99 €/month displays correctly
- refresh subscription and Stripe sync tests to lock the new values in
place
## Summary
- **Monthly equivalent pricing**: yearly plan now shows the per-month
price (e.g. €3.90/month) with a \"Billed annually at €46.80\" note
beneath, matching the paywall behaviour
- **Plan rename**: \"Pro Monthly\" and \"Pro Yearly\" renamed to
\"Standard Monthly\" and \"Standard Yearly\" in config
- **Free plan card**: when the `open-banking` feature flag is active, a
Free card is shown first in the pricing grid — same features as paid
plans but without \"Connect bank accounts\" and \"Priority support\"
- **Connect bank accounts feature**: conditionally prepended to paid
plan feature lists when `open-banking` is enabled
- **Grid layout**: column count dynamically accounts for the optional
free plan card
## Screenshots
<img width="1172" height="862" alt="image"
src="https://github.com/user-attachments/assets/1f2895ed-12fe-4b32-a117-19a584014ae7"
/>
<img width="1173" height="821" alt="image"
src="https://github.com/user-attachments/assets/6f56a697-9908-43c6-9b15-6dd8cec35826"
/>
## Summary
- **Dynamic Stripe price resolution**: Replaces hardcoded
`stripe_price_id` env vars with lookup-key-based resolution
(`stripe_lookup_key`). A new `php artisan stripe:sync-prices` command
creates/updates Stripe prices from `config/subscriptions.php`
automatically.
- **Locale-aware currency formatting**: Replaces all
`getCurrencySymbol() + toFixed(2)` patterns with `formatCurrency()`
(backed by `Intl.NumberFormat`) across `welcome.tsx`, `paywall.tsx`,
`billing.tsx`, and `step-create-account.tsx`, so symbol position and
separators are correct for the user's locale (e.g. `3,90 €` in Spanish).
- **EUR defaults and updated plan prices**: Cashier currency defaulted
to EUR, plan prices updated to €7.80/month and €46.80/year, and
`pricing.currency` is now shared as an Inertia prop.
- **Promo/discount cleanup**: Removed all FOUNDER discount mentions and
Discord community links from the paywall, landing pricing section, and
invitation email.
## Summary
Implements a complete user onboarding flow that guides new users through
setting up their account after registration.
## Features
- **Step-by-step wizard UI** with progress indicator and smooth
animations
- **E2E Encryption setup** with password strength indicator and
explanation of how encryption works
- **Account creation** supporting all account types (checking, savings,
credit card, investment, pension)
- **Category customization** with explanation of category types
(expenses, income, transfer)
- **Smart rules explanation** covering why there is no AI
auto-categorization (privacy & E2EE)
- **Transaction/balance import** based on account type
- **Sync integration** to ensure data consistency with backend
## Flow Diagram
```mermaid
flowchart TD
A[User Registration] --> B[Welcome]
B --> E[Encryption Explained]
E --> C{Has encryption key?}
C -->|No|F[Encryption Setup]
C -->|Yes|G{Has Existing Accounts?}
G -->|Yes| H[Show Existing Accounts]
G -->|No| I[Create First Account]
H --> J[Continue]
I --> K{Account Type?}
K -->|Checking/Savings/Credit Card| L[Import Transactions]
K -->|Investment/Pension| M[Import Balances]
J --> N[Category Types Explanation]
L --> N
M --> N
N --> O[Customize Categories]
O --> P[Smart Rules Explanation]
P --> Q[More Accounts?]
Q -->|Add More| I
Q -->|Finish| R[Complete]
R --> S[Redirect to Dashboard]
S --> T{Subscribed?}
T -->|No| U[Subscribe Page]
T -->|Yes| V[Dashboard]
```
## Technical Changes
### Backend
- Added `onboarded_at` field to users table with migration
- Created `EnsureOnboardingComplete` middleware for redirect logic
- Created `OnboardingController` with index and complete actions
- Custom `RegisterResponse` to redirect new users to onboarding
- Updated `AccountController::store` to return JSON for fetch requests
### Frontend
- `OnboardingLayout` - fullscreen layout with step progress
- `useOnboardingState` hook - manages step navigation and state
- 12 step components for each onboarding screen
- Backend sync after account creation and imports
### Tests
- Feature tests for onboarding middleware
- Updated existing tests to use `onboarded()` factory state
## Summary
Centralizes all pricing/subscription plan configuration in a single PHP
config file, making it easy to modify prices, features, and promotional
codes from one place.
## Changes
### Config (`config/subscriptions.php`)
- Added `plans` array with support for multiple billing cycles (monthly,
yearly, lifetime)
- Each plan includes: name, price, original_price (for discounts),
stripe_price_id, billing_period, and features
- Added `default_plan` setting to control which plan is highlighted
- Added `promo` config with enabled flag, code, description, and badge
### Frontend
- Created TypeScript types for `Plan`, `PromoConfig`, and
`PricingConfig`
- Updated `welcome.tsx` to display all plans in a responsive grid layout
- Updated `paywall.tsx` to show all plans with "Most Popular" and "Best
Value" badges
- Promo code section is now conditionally rendered based on
`promo.enabled`
### Backend
- Updated `HandleInertiaRequests.php` to share pricing config globally
- Removed redundant props from routes
### Tests
- Added test to verify pricing config structure is passed correctly
## How to Use
To modify pricing, edit `config/subscriptions.php`:
- Change `default_plan` to highlight a different plan
- Set `promo.enabled` to `false` (or `PROMO_ENABLED=false` in `.env`) to
hide promo codes
- Add/remove/modify plans as needed
Víctor Falcón