'control', SubscriptionExperiment::REDUCED_TRIAL => 'reduced', SubscriptionExperiment::PAY_NOW => 'pay_now', ]; public function __construct(private ExperimentFunnelCollector $collector) { parent::__construct(); } public function handle(): int { $costPerConnectionCents = (int) round(((float) $this->option('cost-per-connection')) * 100); $report = $this->collector->collect($costPerConnectionCents); if ($report['startedAt'] === null) { $this->warn('Experiment not started — set SUBSCRIPTION_EXPERIMENT_STARTED_AT to begin.'); return self::SUCCESS; } foreach ($this->tableLines($report) as $line) { $this->line($line); } if ($this->option('no-discord')) { $this->info('Skipped Discord (--no-discord).'); return self::SUCCESS; } $webhookUrl = config('services.discord.ai_cohort_webhook_url') ?: config('services.discord.webhook_url'); (new DiscordWebhook($webhookUrl))->send('', [$this->buildEmbed($report)]); $this->info('Experiment funnel report sent to Discord.'); return self::SUCCESS; } /** * @param array{startedAt: ?CarbonImmutable, currency: string, revenueAvailable: bool, costPerConnectionCents: int, variants: array>} $report * @return list */ private function tableLines(array $report): array { $revenue = $report['revenueAvailable']; $currency = $report['currency']; $lines = [sprintf( '%-8s %5s %5s %5s %5s %5s %6s %7s %7s %7s %7s %7s', 'Variant', 'Assg', 'Actd', 'Card', 'MatU', 'Paid', 'Conv%', 'ARPU', 'MRR', 'Cost', 'Burn', 'CM', )]; foreach (self::LABELS as $key => $label) { $row = $report['variants'][$key]; $mature = $row['assignedMature'] > 0; $money = $revenue && $mature; $lines[] = sprintf( '%-8s %5d %5d %5d %5d %5d %6s %7s %7s %7s %7s %7s', $label, $row['assigned'], $row['activated'], $row['subscribed'], $row['assignedMature'], $row['activeMature'], $mature ? ((int) round($row['netActiveRate'] * 100)).'%' : 'pend', $money && $row['arpuCents'] !== null ? $this->money($row['arpuCents'], $currency) : '—', $money ? $this->money($row['mrrCents'], $currency) : '—', $mature ? $this->money($row['costCents'], $currency) : '—', $mature ? $this->money($row['wastedCostCents'], $currency) : '—', $money ? $this->money($row['contributionMarginCents'], $currency) : '—', ); } return $lines; } private function money(int $cents, string $currency): string { $symbol = match (strtolower($currency)) { 'eur' => '€', 'gbp' => '£', 'usd' => '$', default => $currency.' ', }; return $symbol.number_format($cents / 100, 2); } /** * @param array{startedAt: ?CarbonImmutable, currency: string, revenueAvailable: bool, costPerConnectionCents: int, variants: array>} $report * @return array */ private function buildEmbed(array $report): array { return [ 'title' => '🧪 Trial/Pricing Experiment — Funnel by Variant', 'description' => "```\n".implode("\n", $this->tableLines($report))."\n```", 'color' => 0xFEE75C, 'fields' => [ [ 'name' => 'Started', 'value' => $report['startedAt']->format('D, d M Y').' · new signups split evenly into the three variants.', 'inline' => false, ], [ 'name' => 'Legend', 'value' => sprintf( 'Assg = signups · Actd = activated (connected a bank or enabled AI = cost triggered) · Card = completed checkout (card on file) · MatU = matured assigned (cohort old enough to score for this variant) · Paid = live non-refunded subs among MatU · Conv%% = Paid ÷ MatU (net conversion, always ≤100%%, comparable across variants) · ARPU = MRR ÷ MatU (revenue per matured user) · MRR = monthly run-rate of paid subs (yearly ÷ 12) · Cost = est. connection cost of MatU (%s/connection) · Burn = connection cost of matured users who never earned net revenue (connected a bank but never paid, or paid then refunded) · CM = MRR − Cost · `pend`/`—` = no matured data yet.', $this->money($report['costPerConnectionCents'], $report['currency']), ), 'inline' => false, ], [ 'name' => '⚠️ How to read it', 'value' => 'Each variant matures on its own decision window (control 15d, reduced 7d, pay_now 3d, +3d settle), so at any moment MatU differs a lot between variants (pay_now matures first). **Compare variants on Conv% and ARPU — normalized per matured user — not on the absolute MRR/Cost/Burn/CM totals, which scale with MatU and so mechanically favour whichever variant has matured more.** Assg/Actd/Card are lifetime counts; everything from MatU rightward covers the matured cohort only, so the raw Actd→Card→Paid funnel mixes cohorts (immature carded users can\'t be Paid yet) — read it for volume. Per-user CM is sub-cent at current volume, so treat CM as directional context, not the decision. Check significance (sample size = MatU) before calling a winner. Cost is a flat per-connection estimate across all providers, not per-provider billing.', 'inline' => false, ], ], ]; } }