224 lines
10 KiB
PHP
224 lines
10 KiB
PHP
<?php
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namespace App\Console\Commands;
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use App\Features\SubscriptionExperiment;
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use App\Services\Discord\DiscordWebhook;
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use App\Services\Stats\BinomialProportion;
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use App\Services\Stats\ExperimentFunnelCollector;
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use App\Services\Stats\ProportionSignificance;
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use Carbon\CarbonImmutable;
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use Illuminate\Console\Command;
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class SendExperimentFunnelReportCommand extends Command
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{
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protected $signature = 'stats:experiment-funnel
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{--no-discord : Print the report to the console only, without posting to Discord}
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{--cost-per-connection=0.4 : Estimated cost (in the Cashier currency) per bank connection, used for the Cost/Burn/CM columns}';
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protected $description = 'Post the trial/pricing experiment funnel (per variant) to Discord';
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private const LABELS = [
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SubscriptionExperiment::CONTROL => 'control',
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SubscriptionExperiment::REDUCED_TRIAL => 'reduced',
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SubscriptionExperiment::PAY_NOW => 'pay_now',
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];
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public function __construct(
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private ExperimentFunnelCollector $collector,
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private ProportionSignificance $significance,
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) {
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parent::__construct();
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}
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public function handle(): int
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{
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$costPerConnectionCents = (int) round(((float) $this->option('cost-per-connection')) * 100);
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$report = $this->collector->collect($costPerConnectionCents);
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if ($report['startedAt'] === null) {
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$this->warn('Experiment not started — set SUBSCRIPTION_EXPERIMENT_STARTED_AT to begin.');
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return self::SUCCESS;
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}
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foreach ($this->tableLines($report) as $line) {
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$this->line($line);
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}
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foreach ($this->significanceLines($report) as $line) {
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$this->line($line);
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}
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if ($this->option('no-discord')) {
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$this->info('Skipped Discord (--no-discord).');
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return self::SUCCESS;
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}
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$webhookUrl = config('services.discord.ai_cohort_webhook_url')
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?: config('services.discord.webhook_url');
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(new DiscordWebhook($webhookUrl))->send('', [$this->buildEmbed($report)]);
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$this->info('Experiment funnel report sent to Discord.');
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return self::SUCCESS;
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}
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/**
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* @param array{startedAt: ?CarbonImmutable, currency: string, revenueAvailable: bool, costPerConnectionCents: int, variants: array<string, array<string, mixed>>} $report
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* @return list<string>
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*/
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private function tableLines(array $report): array
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{
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$revenue = $report['revenueAvailable'];
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$currency = $report['currency'];
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$lines = [sprintf(
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'%-8s %5s %5s %5s %5s %5s %6s %7s %7s %7s %7s %7s',
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'Variant', 'Assg', 'Actd', 'Card', 'MatU', 'Conv', 'Conv%', 'ARPU', 'MRR', 'Cost', 'Burn', 'CM',
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)];
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foreach (self::LABELS as $key => $label) {
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$row = $report['variants'][$key];
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$mature = $row['assignedMature'] > 0;
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$showMoney = $revenue && $mature;
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$lines[] = sprintf(
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'%-8s %5d %5d %5d %5d %5d %6s %7s %7s %7s %7s %7s',
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$label,
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$row['assigned'],
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$row['activated'],
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$row['subscribed'],
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$row['assignedMature'],
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$row['convertedMature'],
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$mature ? ((int) round($row['conversionRate'] * 100)).'%' : 'pend',
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$showMoney && $row['arpuCents'] !== null ? $this->money($row['arpuCents'], $currency) : '—',
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$showMoney ? $this->money($row['mrrCents'], $currency) : '—',
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$mature ? $this->money($row['costCents'], $currency) : '—',
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$mature ? $this->money($row['wastedCostCents'], $currency) : '—',
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$showMoney ? $this->money($row['contributionMarginCents'], $currency) : '—',
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);
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}
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return $lines;
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}
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/**
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* Per-variant conversion-rate uncertainty (95% Wilson interval) plus the
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* leader-vs-runner-up verdict from {@see ProportionSignificance} — a Fisher
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* exact test and a Newcombe difference interval, Bonferroni-corrected — so
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* "check significance before calling a winner" has the numbers behind it.
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*
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* @param array{startedAt: ?CarbonImmutable, currency: string, revenueAvailable: bool, costPerConnectionCents: int, variants: array<string, array<string, mixed>>} $report
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* @return list<string>
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*/
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private function significanceLines(array $report): array
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{
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$lines = ['', 'Significance (95% Wilson CI on Conv%, n = MatU):'];
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$arms = [];
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foreach (self::LABELS as $key => $label) {
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$row = $report['variants'][$key];
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$n = (int) $row['assignedMature'];
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$k = (int) $row['convertedMature'];
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if ($n <= 0) {
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$lines[] = sprintf(' %-8s pend (n=0)', $label);
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continue;
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}
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[$low, $high] = $this->significance->wilsonInterval($k, $n);
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$lines[] = sprintf(' %-8s %6s [%6s – %6s] (n=%d)', $label, $this->percent($k / $n), $this->percent($low), $this->percent($high), $n);
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$arms[] = new BinomialProportion($label, $k, $n);
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}
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if (count($arms) < 2) {
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$lines[] = 'Not enough matured variants to compare yet.';
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return $lines;
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}
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usort($arms, fn (BinomialProportion $a, BinomialProportion $b): int => $b->rate() <=> $a->rate());
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[$leader, $runnerUp] = [$arms[0], $arms[1]];
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$result = $this->significance->compare($leader, $runnerUp);
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$lines[] = sprintf(
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'Leader %s vs %s: Δ %+.1f pts (95%% CI %+.1f … %+.1f pts, Newcombe).',
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$leader->label, $runnerUp->label,
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($leader->rate() - $runnerUp->rate()) * 100, $result['diffLow'] * 100, $result['diffHigh'] * 100,
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);
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$lines[] = sprintf(
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'Fisher exact p=%.3f %s α=%.3f (Bonferroni×3) -> %s.%s',
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$result['fisherP'], $result['significant'] ? '<' : '≥', $result['alpha'],
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$result['significant'] ? 'significant' : 'not significant',
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$result['significant'] ? '' : ' Keep running.',
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);
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if ($result['minExpectedCount'] < 5.0) {
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$lines[] = sprintf(
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'(Small sample: min expected conversions %.1f < 5, so the normal-approx z=%.2f overstates — exact test used.)',
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$result['minExpectedCount'], $result['z'],
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);
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}
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return $lines;
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}
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private function percent(float $rate): string
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{
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return number_format($rate * 100, 1).'%';
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}
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private function money(int $cents, string $currency): string
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{
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$symbol = match (strtolower($currency)) {
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'eur' => '€',
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'gbp' => '£',
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'usd' => '$',
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default => $currency.' ',
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};
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return $symbol.number_format($cents / 100, 2);
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}
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/**
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* @param array{startedAt: ?CarbonImmutable, currency: string, revenueAvailable: bool, costPerConnectionCents: int, variants: array<string, array<string, mixed>>} $report
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* @return array<string, mixed>
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*/
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private function buildEmbed(array $report): array
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{
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return [
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'title' => '🧪 Trial/Pricing Experiment — Funnel by Variant',
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'description' => "```\n".implode("\n", $this->tableLines($report))."\n```",
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'color' => 0xFEE75C,
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'fields' => [
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[
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'name' => 'Started',
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'value' => $report['startedAt']->format('D, d M Y').' · new signups split evenly into the three variants.',
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'inline' => false,
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],
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[
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'name' => '📊 Significance',
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'value' => "```\n".implode("\n", $this->significanceLines($report))."\n```",
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'inline' => false,
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],
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[
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'name' => 'Legend',
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'value' => sprintf(
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'Assg = signups · Actd = activated (connected a bank or enabled AI = cost triggered) · Card = completed checkout (card on file) · MatU = matured assigned (cohort old enough to score for this variant) · Conv = matured users who ever converted (were charged, net of refund) — time-invariant, so it does not shrink as an older cohort has longer to churn · Conv%% = Conv ÷ MatU (always ≤100%%, comparable across variants) · ARPU = MRR ÷ MatU (revenue per matured user) · MRR = monthly run-rate of *currently* paying subs (yearly ÷ 12); Conv above MRR is churn · Cost = est. connection cost of MatU (%s/connection) · Burn = connection cost of matured users who never earned net revenue (connected a bank but never paid, or paid then refunded) · CM = MRR − Cost · `pend`/`—` = no matured data yet.',
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$this->money($report['costPerConnectionCents'], $report['currency']),
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),
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'inline' => false,
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],
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[
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'name' => '⚠️ How to read it',
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'value' => 'Each variant matures on its own decision window (control 15d, reduced 7d, pay_now 3d, +3d settle), so at any moment MatU differs a lot between variants (pay_now matures first). **Compare variants on Conv% and ARPU — normalized per matured user — not on the absolute MRR/Cost/Burn/CM totals, which scale with MatU and so mechanically favour whichever variant has matured more.** Assg/Actd/Card are lifetime counts; everything from MatU rightward covers the matured cohort only, so the raw Actd→Card→Conv funnel mixes cohorts (immature carded users can\'t have matured yet) — read it for volume. Conv counts anyone ever charged (net of refund), so it is not depressed for older cohorts the way a live-active snapshot would be. Per-user CM is sub-cent at current volume, so treat CM as directional context, not the decision. Check significance (sample size = MatU) before calling a winner. Cost is a flat per-connection estimate across all providers, not per-provider billing.',
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'inline' => false,
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],
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],
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];
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}
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}
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