## What
Adds a weekly **registration → subscription → paid** funnel so we can
baseline subscription conversion and, later, measure A/B tests against
it.
- `stats:subscription-funnel` artisan command — prints the cohort table
and posts it to Discord (same webhook as the other weekly reports).
- `SubscriptionFunnelCollector` — builds the age-normalized weekly
cohort series.
- Scheduled weekly, Mondays 09:15, next to the existing cohort reports.
## How the funnel is defined
Every stage is measured from each user's **own signup**, so weekly
cohorts are compared at the same age regardless of the calendar.
- **Registered** — signups that week.
- **Subscribed** — started a `default` plan ≤30d after signup (entered
checkout/trial).
- **Paid** — that plan billed past the 15d trial: currently `active`, or
`canceled` only after outliving the trial. `trial_ends_at` is cleared on
cancel, so subscription lifespan is the reliable "did it ever bill"
signal.
Both stages are bounded by the same subscription-creation window, which
guarantees the funnel invariant **registered ≥ subscribed ≥ paid** (a
test enforces it — I caught and fixed a window bug where `paid` could
exceed `subscribed`). Cohorts too young to score show `pend`; signup
surges (launch/marketing waves) are flagged with ⚡.
## Current baseline (prod, 2026-06-27)
| Stage | Count | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Registered | 1,289 | — |
| Subscribed | 158 | 12.3% of registered |
| Trial resolved | 128 | conversion denominator |
| Paid after trial | 91 | **71%** of resolved · 7.1% of registered |
| Currently active | 75 | 82% of payers retained |
⚠️ ~940 of the 1,289 signups arrived in the last ~5 weeks (a
late-May/June surge); their trials haven't fully resolved, so
cohort-level conversion for that wave isn't measurable yet. The 71% is
status-based — a clean cohort baseline lands in ~4–6 weeks.
## Tests
5 Pest tests covering cohort counting, the attribution window, the
funnel invariant, maturity gating, and Discord delivery. All green, Pint
clean.
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