Fixes a design flaw in #700, before the experiment has any exposure.
## The problem
#700 drew the arm from `crc32('price:' . $user->id)`, which can only
happen once the user exists. But the landing quotes a price to anonymous
visitors, and `plansFor(null)` had no arm to apply — so **every visitor
saw €3.99**, and half of them were switched to €8.99 after registering.
That biases the result in both directions at once:
- **Against `high`** — it pays a penalty that isn't price sensitivity
but a price that moved after being advertised. Someone who'd have
happily paid €8.99 quoted upfront leaves because they feel baited.
- **In favour of `high`** — its funnel only contains people who already
decided to sign up under a €3.99 promise. In a world where we actually
charge €8.99, the landing says €8.99 and some of them never register at
all. The experiment is blind to that drop-off.
Neither bias is recoverable from the data, and they don't cancel: a
narrow loss for `high` would be uninterpretable.
## The fix
Draw the arm for the **anonymous visitor** on their first page view,
keep it in a year-long cookie, and freeze it onto `users.price_arm` at
registration. The landing quotes what checkout will charge, and the
whole funnel is measured under one price.
| | before | after |
|---|---|---|
| assigned at | registration | first page view |
| source | `crc32('price:' . id) % 2` | random 50/50 draw |
| stored in | nothing (recomputed) | cookie → `users.price_arm` |
| landing shows | always control | the visitor's arm |
Details worth a look in review:
- **The draw is random, not a hash.** There's no stable identifier
before the user exists. This is what forces the column — the arm has to
outlive the cookie.
- **The middleware writes the arm onto the current request**, not just
the response cookie. The cookie only reaches the browser *after* this
response, and the first view is the landing — the one page that most
needs the right price.
- **Checkout reads `users.price_arm` only, never the cookie.** Editing
your cookie after signing up doesn't get you the cheap price. There's a
test that asserts exactly this, with the cookie set to `control` and the
stored arm `high`.
- **No arm = control.** Users from before the experiment, cookies
blocked, arriving at a deep link. `sanitize()` narrows both the cookie
and the column, since a user controls the former.
- **`force_variant` now also stops the draw** — a winner being rolled
out means the split is over.
- **`price_arm` is in `$hidden`.** The frontend has no use for it, and
it needn't be visible in the Inertia payload.
## Exposure
**None.** The experiment started at 14:00 UTC and had **0 signups past
the cutoff** when this was written, so no arm needs reconciling and no
user changes price. This is the last moment this change is free.
## Reading results
The CRC32 expression from #700 is obsolete:
```sql
SELECT COALESCE(price_arm, 'legacy') AS arm, COUNT(*)
FROM users WHERE created_at >= '<started_at>' GROUP BY arm;
```
## Still open
The landing now shows €8.99 to half of anonymous visitors, which means
the experiment can finally affect signup volume itself. That's the point
— but it also means a drop in registrations is a *result*, not a bug,
and shouldn't be rolled back on reflex.
## Tests
19 tests in `PriceExperimentTest`, rewritten around the new mechanism:
the draw, the gate, the forced winner, the cookie→prop path on the first
visit, freezing at registration, and checkout ignoring the cookie.
`Auth`, `SubscriptionTest`, `InertiaSharedDataTest`, `CashflowPageTest`
and `SyncStripePricesCommandTest` all green locally (122 tests). PHPStan
and `crap` clean.
8fef50f829